Shifting Shares (11 March 2019) – Choppy Conditions #PHD #BBSN #IDP

Shifting Shares (11 March 2019) – Choppy Conditions #PHD #BBSN #IDP

News roundup

Red Emperor had some fantastic moves last week if you were feeling brave, or understand oil terminology. Proactis Holdings also continued to be hammered after the initial few scalps, so it’s a case in which I’m waiting for supply to thin to trade the oversold bounce.

JKX Oil & Gas

JKX has been a nice one to trade, but I missed the recent breakout. The market makers actually gapped this down on what seemed good news, which was bought up straight away as we can see from the chart.

(All charts taken from SharePad)

Since the end of January, volumes in the stock have been consistently higher on average, and the price is rising, showing us that demand is increasing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see JKX trade higher before dipping. This may give punters an opportunity to get long on the dip or trade the breakout at the prior high.

Proactis Holdings (PHD)

PHD is currently being pegged back by a seller(s). Whether both Liontrust and Investec are selling their holdings, I don’t know. Law-abiding institutions should send an RNS for each threshold their cross. I’m generally of the opinion that institutions only notify once they’re finished selling, or very close to it, so as to not spook people into selling whilst they’re dumping.

Volumes continue to be high, and the price continues to print lower, which can only mean that there is an abundance of supply. Ideally we want to see the price base on low volume, and the price start ticking up on increasing volume.

I’ve not done any research on this, and don’t intend to, because once the stock is out of play I won’t be looking at it again unless it pops up on my filters for a trade.

I did notice that the Non-Executive Chairman bought ~£48,000 worth of stock at 59p. Given that the price has halved since then, I bet he’s not feeling too happy. Senior Independent Non-Executive Director (what on earth is a senior independent NED? Surely NEDs are supposed to be independent? It’s like calling me a stock trading stock trader) bought around £9,600 too.

The CEO went on betting and bought at 33p, but only £9,500 worth. My belief is that if PHD was a stonking buy, they’d all be filling their boots. Whether they are doing that or not, I’ll leave that decision to you.

Big Sofa Technologies (BST)

I’ve had BST firmly in the junk pile for a while now, ever since it botched a placing a few months ago. It came up on my filter more recently, as it looked to have broken a key area. It’s illiquid though, and I wanted to wait for a few more cards to show themselves before playing the stock.

In December, three directors paid out ~£43,000 for stock at 3.1p, followed by another two buying ~£17,000 worth, and a NED buying £12,400. The directors deferred their salaries by 20%, and granted themselves a huge amount of options at the ambitiously high price of 6p (really?).

The final results looked a trainwreck, and was quickly followed by a placing including some director participation (it says £280,000 of current directors and a former director, so we have no idea). It won’t be the last placing, but the chart is beginning to look healthier.

I’d be interested if the price broke the recent high, but as this is still trash I would not give it much leeway.

Brave Bison (BBSN)

Brave Bison gapped up through the recent high on good news, and with results coming up this could be a nice catalyst for the share price.

Resistance at 3.5p and 5p will be key areas. After that, it’s multi-year highs with increasing fundamentals stacking up. I’m excited to see the story play out at Brave Bison, and I’m still long from this column’s mention a few weeks ago, and added on the dip.

Capital Drilling

I don’t know anything about CAPD’s fundamentals, and don’t intend to either!

Looking at the chart, from the start of 2017 CAPD seemed to be in a stage four downtrend. Since the start of 2018, the price has bumbled along, put in a higher low, and gradually started curving up. If we break that high at 48p, it could be the start of a new uptrend.

Innovaderma (IDP)

I’ll always have a soft spot for IDP, as I bagged it nicely back in 2017. Since then though, aside from a few scalps, I’ve barely touched the stock.

Every time the stock begins to rally after the results, the CEO decides to unload. Instead of continuously dripping supply into his own market, why not just get an institution to buy them off-market or get a broker to place them at a discount? I’m of the firm opinion that most directors have no clue how the market actually works, and these actions make no sense to me.

The CEO appeared on Proactive Investors to give an interview last September on the same day it was revealed that he’d been selling. And by the way, I believe Proactive takes payments from companies in order to give them a platform to promote. So it looks to me as if the company might have been spending shareholder funds to generate interest in the stock around the same time the CEO was selling – disgraceful!

Anyway, I’m not about to let that stop me making money. I want to see IDP break the 200 averages on good volume, and the next dip bought into. There have been plenty of false breakouts, or fakeouts, in this stock and so I’m happy to miss some of the early move if it means I’ve a higher chance of success later on.

ReNeuron Group (RENE)

RENE came up on my volume filter recently. It goes on the watchlist for now.

The week ahead

The market still looks choppy to me. There have been some great moves by individual stocks, but looking through the charts they don’t look very buoyant. It’s very much a stockpicker’s market, and those who are long a basket of stocks are probably not enjoying it very much. It’ll change though, at some point. It always does.


At the time of publication, the author has financial interests in shares discussed in this article.

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